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Master's Dissertation
DOI
10.11606/D.100.2016.tde-30032016-081314
Document
Author
Full name
Nicholas Veloso Lima
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2016
Supervisor
Committee
Mendonca, Jose Ricardo Gonçalves de (President)
Rodrigues Neto, Camilo
Viana, Adriana Backx Noronha
Title in Portuguese
Difusão competitiva de produtos e inovações: um modelo de duopólio em redes complexas do tipo small world
Keywords in Portuguese
Competição entre marcas
Marketing
Modelos de difusão
Redes complexas
Sistemas complexos
Abstract in Portuguese
Nos últimos 60 anos, os modelos de difusão de produtos e de inovações tiveram penetração tão ampla nos mais diversos campos de investigação científica que se tornaram ubíquos, sendo empregados em contextos diversos como no marketing, na Medicina, na Antropologia, na Geografia, por exemplo. Essa abrangência é devido ao papel vital que produtos, inovações e novas tecnologias têm na vida dos indivíduos e no impacto que exercem nas dinâmicas e no desenvolvimento de comunidades, países e de suas economias. Porém, após os grandes saltos dados nas décadas de 1960 e 1970, os estudos em difusão de bens de consumo duráveis deram lugar a pesquisas em sistemas de inovação nas duas décadas seguintes, só voltando a gerar maior interesse acadêmico a partir da década de 2000, com o surgimento dos sistemas de Gestão de Relacionamento com Clientes Customer Relationship Management (CRM) , que tornou disponível um enorme volume de dados; e, também, com o desenvolvimento de novas técnicas de análise, como a modelagem de sistemas complexos. Tendo em vista a carência de estudos integrando modelos de difusão competitiva com modelos de redes usando topologias de redes parcialmente conectadas (small world e livres de escala), este estudo tem como objetivo geral caracterizar a dinâmica da difusão competitiva proposta em redes small world do tipo Watts-Strogatz. Foram realizadas simulações tanto da formulação clássica do modelo de difusão de produtos e de inovações, proposto por Bass (1969), como de proposições mais modernas para difusão competitiva, como os propostos por Libai, Muller e Peres (2009a; 2009b; 2009c) e por Peres, Muller e Mahajan (2010), além de desenvolver um novo modelo incorporando ao de Libai, Muller e Peres (2009c) a topologia de redes de pequeno mundo e outras características de difusão competitiva não presentes na formulação original , permitindo fazer inferências sobre o comportamento da difusão em diversos cenários que não são explicitamente previstos nas formulações clássicas. Por sua lógica intuitiva e simples, o modelo proposto neste trabalho é de valor significativo para o ensino e para a pesquisa da difusão competitiva
Title in English
Competitive diffusion of products and innovations: a duopoly model on small world complex networks
Keywords in English
Brand competition
Complex networks
Complex systems
Diffusion models
Marketing
Abstract in English
In the last 60 years, product and innovation models were so widespread in so many fields of study that they became ubiquitous, being employed in such diverse backgrounds like marketing, medicine, anthropology and geography. Such widespread influence arises from the fact that products, innovations and Technologies have a big role in any individuals daily lives and a huge impact on the development and dynamics of communities, countries and its economies. After huge leaps on this field of research during the 1960s and 1970s, its study faded away from mainstream research in the following two decades. Only regaining widespread academic interest in the beginning of 21st century, with the advent of Customer Relationship Management systems, which made available huge amounts of data, other factors that contributed to this resurgence in diffusion literature were the advancements on new tools for research, notably the developments in complex systems theory and network theory. In the view of the still small, but rapidly increasing, number of studies integrating competitive diffusion and network models of partially connected networks (such as small world networks and scale-free networks), this study aims to characterize the dynamics of competitive diffusion in small world networks with the Watts-Strogatz topology. For its intended purpose, simulations were created, both for the classical formulation of the Bass Diffusion Model, as well as more modern approaches for competitive diffusion, such as the models proposed by Libai, Muller and Peres and Peres, Muller and Mahajan. A new model was developed in order expand the model proposed by Libai et al (2009c) in order incorporate the small world network topology and other characteristics associated to competition that were not explicitly represented. Allowing the inference of behaviors in various scenarios that are not explicitly covered in the classical formulations. For intuitive logic and simplicity, it is believed that this model is of significant value for teaching and for the study of competitive diffusion
 
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Publishing Date
2016-08-22
 
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