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Master's Dissertation
DOI
Document
Author
Full name
Maria Ines Moreira de Araujo
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
Piracicaba, 1993
Supervisor
Title in Portuguese
Zoneamento da produtividade potencial climática da cana-de-açúcar no Estado do Rio de Janeiro
Keywords in Portuguese
CANA-DE-AÇÚCAR
PRODUTIVIDADE
ZONEAMENTO CLIMÁTICO
Abstract in Portuguese
A produtividade potencial climática da cana-de-açúcar foi estimada para diversas localidades do Rio de Janeiro utilizando modelo matemático proposto por De Wit (1965) modificado por Villa Nova & Barbieri (1991). Utiliza-se dados mensais de temperaturas, insolação e fotoperíodo. Os resultados mostram que a produtividade estimada foi superior à produtividade real dada pelo IBGE e próxima à obtida em experimentos de campo irrigados. O fator limitante à produtividade da cana-de-açúcar na região é a falta de água podendo a produtividade aumentar significativamente com o uso adequado de irrigação. Admitindo que uma mudança climática está ocorrendo, dois novos cenários climáticos foram avaliados. Se a temperatura da região sofrer um acréscimo de 10% do valor atual, o modelo prevê que a produtividade potencial aumentará em mais de 20%. Ao contrário, se houver um decréscimo de 10% na temperatura, a produtividade potencial reduzida em mais de 25%
Title in English
Sugarcane potential climatic yield zoning for the Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil
Abstract in English
The climatic potential yield for the sugarcane (Saccharum spp) was estimated for several regions in the Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil, using a mathematical-physiological model proposed by De wit (1965) and modified by VILLA NOVA & BARBIERI (1991). The model inputs are the monthly means of the maximum, minimum and mean air temperature, hours of sunshine and photoperiod. The results indicate that the estimated potential yield for the region is well ábove the actual yield. For some regions the actual yield is only half of that climatically possible. However, when the model predictions are compared with experimental results from irrigated fields the discrepancy is very small suggesting that the lack of irrigation is the single most restrictive factor to the sugarcane yield in the region. Supposing that a climatic change is under way, two new scenarios were also used to simulate the response of the sugarcane plant to those possible changes. Assuming that the mean monthly temperature will change either way by as much as 10% of the current value it was found that the model predicts that the sugarcane yield will be more affected if the temperature drops. If the temperature increases, as predicted by many climatic models, the sugarcane yield will benefit with such change for the model indicates that a 10% increase in the temperature will improve the yield by more than 20% if the demand for water is fully satisfied. If the temperature decreases by 10% the potential yield will be reduced by as much as 25%, also under optimum water supply
 
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Publishing Date
2019-08-22
 
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