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Master's Dissertation
DOI
https://doi.org/10.11606/D.11.1995.tde-20191108-111425
Document
Author
Full name
Marcos Minoru Hasegawa
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
Piracicaba, 1995
Supervisor
Title in Portuguese
O mercado de reposição da pecuária bovina de corte no estado de São Paulo
Keywords in Portuguese
BOI GORDO
BOVINOCULTURA DE CORTE
MERCADO DE REPOSIÇÃO
PREÇOS
Abstract in Portuguese
O objetivo foi o estudo da eficiência dos mercados de reposição e do boi gordo por meio de determinação do sentido, da intensidade e da duração da transmissão de preço entre as diferentes categorias e as relações que existem entre os leilões das principais regiões do Estado de São Paulo. O modelo do vetor de correção de erros (VEC), especificado através dos testes do procedimento de Johansen foi usado no estudo do mercado de reposição e do boi gordo. No estudo dos leilões foi determinada a contribuição de cada variável na explicação das demais. As séries de preços dos mercados da pecuária bovina de corte são cointegradas, ou seja, os mercados são eficientes no conjunto. Os mercados de boi gordo e de bezerro são fontes de variação dos preços para os demais porque são melhor estruturados, possuem maior quantidade de informação e maior volume de comercialização. Na fase ascendente do ciclo pecuário plurianual, o segmento boi gordo domina os demais mercados como fonte da variação dos preços, enquanto que na fase descendente, os mercados de reposição passam a influenciar tanto quanto o mercado do boi gordo. Em relação aos leilões de Araçatuba, Bauru e Presidente Prudente não existe relação dominante satélite
Title in English
The replacement market of slaughter cattle in São Paulo state
Abstract in English
The object of study in this research was the price formation in replacement market for slaughter cattle of State of São Paulo. The efficiency of replacement market and fat cattle market was analysed by determining of direction, intensity and duration of price transmission between different animal categories. In the study of replacement market of slaughter cattIe in the State of São Paulo the vector error correction model (VEC), that is, the vector autoregression model in difference with error correction vectors, was used for several time series running from june'70 to may'94. The Johansen procedure was used to verify whether the variables are cointegrated and whether the constant and dummies variables are or not important in the estimated model. The integration order of each serie was verified by Dickey-FuIler augmented test (ADF). In the auction's study, multi pie linear regressions were estimated to determine the contribution of each variable in other variables'explanation. The price series of the slaughter cattle markets are cointegrated or, in others words, these markets are jointly efficient. The fat cattle market and the calf market are the main source of price variation affecting other categories because both are better structured, have better information and deal large volumes. The flow of information between markets increased from first period to second period, what is verified by response-impulse analysis. In both periods, june'70 to june'82 and june'82 to may'94, the pluriannual cattle cycle influenced the relationship between slaughter cattle markets. In the increasing phase of price cycle, the fat cattle dominates other categories as source of price variation, while in the decreasing phase, the other categories influence more intensively other markets. There is not dominant-sattelite relationships between Araçatuba, Bauru and Presidente Prudente auctions
 
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Publishing Date
2021-09-18
 
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