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Doctoral Thesis
Full name
Regina Celia Faria Simões
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Piracicaba, 1998
Title in Portuguese
Uma análise de insumo-produto da economia brasileira no período de transição (1990-1994) para a formação do Mercosul
Keywords in Portuguese
Abstract in Portuguese
Este trabalho tem por objetivo analisar os impactos da formação do Mercado Comum do Sul (MERCOSUL) sobre a economia brasileira. Mais especificamente, pretende-se verificar os efeitos da criação do MERCOSUL sobre o comércio externo brasileiro, a estrutura produtiva brasileira e sobre a demanda final, levando-se em conta seus componentes, ou seja, formação bruta de capital, gastos do governo, consumo das famílias e exportações. Utilizou-se o modelo de insumo-produto para detectar os reflexos do MERCOSUL sobre a economia brasileira. Além disso, foram usados outros conceitos a saber: Multiplicadores Setoriais, Índices de Ligação para frente e para trás, Índices Puros, Setores-Chave e o conceito de Campo de Influência para mostrar os impactos da criação do MERCOSUL em 21 setores da economia brasileira. Os resultados evidenciaram que o comércio externo brasileiro apresentou crescimento rigoroso no período analisado mas, a estrutura produtiva brasileira não apresentou mudanças significativas. Com relação ao comportamento da demanda final, apenas o consumo das famílias apresentou pequenas modificações.
Title in English
An analysis of input-output of the Brazilian economy in the period of transition (1990-1994) for the formation of Mercosul
Abstract in English
The goal of this study is to analyze the impacts of the formation of the Common Market of South America (MERCOSUL) on the Brazilian economy. More specifically, the effects of MERCOSUL on the Brazilian external commerce, on the Brazilian productive structure, and on the final demand are verified considering their components, that is, the gross capital formation, government expenditures, family consumption, and exports. The input-output model was used to detect the influences of MERCOSUL on the Brazilian economy. ln addition, other concepts were used such as sectorial multipliers, backward and forward linkage indexes, pure indexes, key-sectors and field of influence approach to show the impacts of the creation of MERCOSUL on 21 sectors of the Brazilian economy. The results showed evidences that the Brazilian external commerce had an extreme growth during the analyzed period, although the Brazilian productive structure failed to present significant changes. In regard to the behavior of the final demand, only the family consumption had a few modifications.
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