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Master's Dissertation
DOI
10.11606/D.12.2019.tde-03012019-161149
Document
Author
Full name
Stella Mendes Carneiro
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2018
Supervisor
Committee
Nakane, Márcio Issao (President)
Aldrighi, Dante Mendes
Campos, Camila de Freitas Souza
Schiozer, Rafael Felipe
Title in English
The perfils of crossing borders: the financial constraints of brazilian exporters during the 2009 global trade collapse
Keywords in English
Credit constraints
International trade collapse
Investment decisions
Abstract in English
This paper explores the 2008-2009 Global Trade Collapse to estimate the effects of a credit supply shock on exporters' investments decisions. Using a Brazilian firm-level dataset compiled by the Brazilian Internal Revenue Service (IRS) over the period 2007-2013, I pair up export-intensive firms with their domestically-oriented counterparts to, subsequently, calculate the differences in terms of sensitivity of investment to cash flow between the two groups over the years. After controlling for the effect of international falling demand, my study reveals that exporters are more severely constrained than their peers in the control group only in 2009, when the supply of credit instruments to finance international trade shrank. Given their high need of external financing to support exporting activities and the volatility of the cost of trade finance, usually priced against 3-month Libor, my results are in line with expected. A number of robustness and placebo tests confirm the validity of the findings.
Title in Portuguese
As dificuldades de atravessar fronteiras: restrições financeiras dos exportadores brasileiros durante o colapso do comércio global em 2009
Keywords in Portuguese
Colapso do comércio internacional
Decisões de investimento
Restrições de crédito
Abstract in Portuguese
Este artigo explora o colapso do comércio global em 2008-2009 no intuito de estimar os efeitos de um choque de oferta de crédito nas decisões de investimento das empresas exportadoras. Utilizando dados em painel de empresas brasileiras no período 2007-2013, compilados pela pela Receita Federal do Brasil (RFB), é feito pareamento entre empresas exportadoras e as focadas no mercado interno e, em seguida, calculadas as diferenças na sensibilidade do investimento ao fluxo de caixa entre os dois grupos ao longo dos anos. Depois de controlar o efeito da queda da demanda internacional, meu estudo revela que as exportadoras ficaram mais restritas a crédito que suas similares do grupo de controle somente no ano de 2009, quando a oferta de instrumentos de crédito para o setor encolheu. Dada a alta necessidade de financiamento externo para apoiar as atividades de exportação e a volatilidade do custo dos instrumentos de crédito destinados a estas, geralmente precificados em relação à Libor de 3 meses, os resultados obtidos estão em linha com o esperado. Uma série de testes de robustez e placebo são realizados para confirmar a validade das inferências.
 
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OriginalStella.pdf (868.73 Kbytes)
Publishing Date
2019-01-09
 
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