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Master's Dissertation
DOI
10.11606/D.12.2018.tde-04012018-171101
Document
Author
Full name
Filipe da Silva Vasconcelos
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2017
Supervisor
Committee
Madeira, Gabriel de Abreu (President)
Rodrigues Junior, Mauro
Santos, Marcelo Rodrigues dos
Souza, Eduardo Correia de
Title in Portuguese
Escolha de campeões e produtividade: triunfo de curto prazo, misallocation no longo prazo
Keywords in Portuguese
Alocação de recursos
Learning bayesiano.
Misallocation
Política pública
Produtividade
Abstract in Portuguese
Este trabalho apresenta um modelo com firmas heterogêneas e aprendizagem. As predições desse modelo mostram que, sob certas condições, as políticas de desenvolvimento podem gerar aumento de produtividade no curto prazo, masmisallocation e perda de produtividade agregada no longo prazo. Isso ocorre caso um componente de produtividade de longo prazo seja imperfeitamente observável no curto prazo devido a choques temporários, e o capital seja especifico e irreversível em alguns setores. Os resultados mostram que o ideal seria aprender sobre componentes de longo prazo da produtividade antes de investir. No entanto, acelerar investimentos nos setores de maior produtividade gera ganhos de produtividade no curto prazo, uma vez que maior produtividade no curto prazo está correlacionada com maior produtividade no longo prazo. Como será discutido, este fato poderia motivar governos à incentivar setores de alta produtividade observada, ainda que estes incentivos fossem socialmente subótimos.
Title in English
Choice of champions and productivity: triumph of short-run, misalloacation in th long-run.
Keywords in English
Learning bayesiano.
Misallocation
Productivity
Public policy
Resource allocation
Abstract in English
This project aims to present a model that shows that, in a single economic environment, government stimulus to sectors, which features high productivity, can generate short-term productivity gains aggregates, but misallocation and long-term aggregate productivity loss. This may occur if a long-term productivity component is imperfectly observable in the short term due to temporary shocks, and capital is specific and irreversible in some sectors. The ideal be learn about long-term components of the productivity before investing. However accelerate investments in the sectors of higher productivity generates productivity gains in the short term, since higher productivity in the short term this correlated with higher productivity in the long run. As discussed, this fact would motivate governments to encourage high productivity observed sectors, although these incentives were socially suboptimal.
 
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OriginalFilipe.pdf (794.80 Kbytes)
Publishing Date
2018-01-24
 
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