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Doctoral Thesis
DOI
10.11606/T.12.2009.tde-18122009-092539
Document
Author
Full name
Cristiano Ricardo Siqueira de Souza
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2009
Supervisor
Committee
Kanczuk, Fabio (President)
Rodrigues Junior, Mauro
Schwartsman, Alexandre
Silber, Simao Davi
Toledo Neto, Celso de Campos
Title in Portuguese
O Brasil pegou a doença holandesa?
Keywords in Portuguese
Câmbio (Economia) - Variação
Economia internacional
Exportação
Manufatura
Recursos naturais - Exploração
Abstract in Portuguese
De acordo com um ramo da literatura de comércio internacional, aumento expressivo nos preços de recursos naturais pode causar forte crescimento na receita de exportação desses bens, que causaria apreciação da taxa real de câmbio e perda de competitividade das exportações e da produção de bens manufaturados. Em casos extremos, haveria encolhimento desse setor, efeito esse denominado desindustrialização. Esse conjunto de efeitos é comumente denominado doença holandesa. A apreciação da taxa de câmbio no Brasil, experimentada a partir de 2003, gerou debate entre economistas, acadêmicos ou não, a respeito da possível ocorrência de sintomas da doença holandesa no Brasil. A maior parte desses trabalhos e opiniões se amparou em observações dos dados para tomar posição a favor ou contra a ocorrência do fenômeno, sem aparente consenso. Este trabalho busca testar a hipótese do país ter apresentado sintomas da doença holandesa no período de 1999 a 2008 e contribuir com a literatura através do emprego de técnicas econométricas tradicionalmente observadas em trabalhos sobre o tema, abordagem essa distinta e inédita para o caso brasileiro. A estimação de relações de cointegração (VECM) mostrou ligação positiva entre preços de commodities e a taxa real de câmbio no Brasil, principalmente a partir de 2003, porém não corroborou a relação negativa entre os mesmos e exportações e produção de bens manufaturados que seria necessária na ocorrência da doença holandesa. O emprego da equação de gravitação para analisar a ligação entre esses preços e as exportações de bens manufaturados em um painel de 172 países tampouco encontrou indícios da ocorrência desse fenômeno. Concluiu-se, portanto, que entre 1999 e 2008 não há evidências indicativas de que o Brasil tenha apresentado os sintomas da doença holandesa.
Title in English
Did Brazil catch the Dutch disease?
Keywords in English
Exchange rate (Economics) - Variation
Exports
International economics
Manufacturing
Natural resources - Exploitation
Abstract in English
According to a branch of the literature on international trade, a boom in the price of natural resources could lead to a surge in revenues with the exports of such goods, which would appreciate the real exchange rate and cause a loss of competitiveness in exports and production of manufactured goods. In extreme cases, the manufacturing sector could shrink, thus amounting to a phenomenon known as deindustrialization. The whole of those effects is commonly referred to as Dutch Disease. The appreciation of the exchange rate in Brazil, experimented from 2003 onwards, generated a debate among economists, both in and out of the academy, concerning the possibility of the symptoms of the Dutch Disease being observed in Brazil. The majority of such works and opinions relied upon the observation of economic data in order to come to a conclusion either in favor or against the phenomenon, without clear consensus. This work aims to test the hypothesis of the country having presented the symptoms of the Dutch Disease between 1999 and 2008 and to contribute with the literature through the employment of econometric techniques commonly observed in works dealing on the theme, a distinct and novel approach for the Brazilian case. The estimation of cointegration relations (VECM) showed a positive connection between commodity prices and the real exchange rate in Brazil, mainly from 2003 onwards, but failed to find the negative relationship between those prices and exports or production of manufactured goods that would be required in the occurrence of the Dutch Disease. The employment of the gravity equation in order to analyze the connection between the price of commodities and exports using a panel of 172 countries also failed to present evidence of the phenomenon. It was concluded that between 1999 and 2008 there is no indication that Brazil presented the symptoms of the Dutch Disease.
 
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Publishing Date
2009-12-21
 
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