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Master's Dissertation
DOI
10.11606/D.12.2007.tde-22052007-160330
Document
Author
Full name
Emilio Chernavsky
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2007
Supervisor
Committee
Paulani, Leda Maria (President)
Silva, Marcos Eugenio da
Siqueira, João de Deus Sicsú
Title in Portuguese
Sobre a construção da política econômica: uma discussão dos determinantes da taxa real de juros no Brasil
Keywords in Portuguese
Política monetária
Taxa de juros
Abstract in Portuguese
As taxas reais de juro básicas que têm sido praticadas no Brasil ao longo de um período de já quase quinze anos têm se mantido de forma permanente em níveis extremamente elevados quando comparadas com as taxas historicamente praticadas no país, ou quanto colocadas em uma perspectiva internacional. Neste trabalho, procurou-se proceder a uma análise crítica sistemática das principais teorias sugeridas pelo campo ortodoxo da teoria econômica com o objetivo de explicar a situação excepcional do Brasil, examinando os resultados empíricos por elas obtidos. De um modo geral, a análise conduzida não encontrou evidências satisfatórias capazes de sustentar a relevância ou por vezes a própria validade das teorias examinadas, as quais demonstraram claramente ser tanto teórica quanto empiricamente insuficientes para justificar a manutenção dos níveis das taxas reais de juro praticados no país. Assim, as conclusões e recomendações de política construídas a partir do conjunto de teorias aqui analisado cuja adequação para o caso brasileiro é posta em dúvida neste trabalho devem ser normalmente vistas com reserva. Por outro lado, procedeu-se a uma análise crítica dos fundamentos teóricos e empíricos sobre os quais se apóia a maneira em que a política monetária tem sido conduzida no país, de forma a verificar se as excepcionais taxas reais de juro brasileiras não decorreriam das necessidades impostas por uma política cujo principal objetivo declarado é manter o controle da inflação. Após proceder ao exame desses fundamentos, não se encontraram na condução da política monetária os elementos que pudessem justificar a particularidade daquelas taxas. Tendo a abordagem ortodoxa se mostrado globalmente insatisfatória como forma de explicar as taxas reais de juro brasileiras, é introduzida uma abordagem alternativa baseada na economia das convenções, a qual se mostrou a princípio capaz de fornecer bons indicativos para resolver a questão.
Title in English
About the construction of the economic policy: a discussion about the determinatives of the real interest rates in Brazil
Keywords in English
Interest rate
Monetary policy
Abstract in English
The basic real interest rates which have been in place in Brazil throughout a period of almost fifteen years remained at extremely high levels when compared against those rates historically valid in the country or when placed into an international perspective. This work has tried to proceed to a systematic analysis of the main theories suggested by the economic orthodoxy, which aim to explain the exceptional situation of Brazil, examining the empirical results such theories have obtained. In a general manner, the analysis has not found satisfactory evidences able to support the relevance or even in some cases the validity for the examined theories, which have clearly demonstrated being both theoretically and empirically insufficient to explain the maintenance of the levels of real interest rates in Brazil. Thus, the conclusions and policy recommendations built from such theories whose capacity of fitting to the Brazilian case was challenged in this work must be taken with particular care. By the other hand, it was performed an analysis on the theoretical and empirical grounds of the manner in which monetary policy was conducted in the country, in order to verify whether the exceptional Brazilian real interest rates could not be originated from the requirements imposed by a policy whose main declared target consists in maintaining the control of the inflation level. After examining those fundamentals, no elements on the monetary policy conduction were found which could justify the peculiarity of those rates. As the orthodox approach turned to be globally unsatisfactory as a way of explaining the Brazilian real interest rates, it was introduced an alternative approach, based on the economics of conventions, which showed itself as being able at first to provide useful insights to help to solve the question.
 
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Publishing Date
2007-05-28
 
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