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Master's Dissertation
DOI
10.11606/D.12.2015.tde-25112015-121849
Document
Author
Full name
Rai da Silva Chicoli
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2015
Supervisor
Committee
Bender, Siegfried (President)
Rocha, Fabiana Fontes
Schwartsman, Alexandre
Title in Portuguese
Sustentabilidade da dívida pública brasileira: uma análise sob diversos conceitos de superávit primário e endividamento
Keywords in Portuguese
Dívida pública - Brasil
Finanças públicas
Política fiscal
Superávit primário
Sustentabilidade da dívida pública
Abstract in Portuguese
Esta dissertação analisa a sustentabilidade da dívida pública brasileira utilizando a metodologia proposta por Bohn (1998, 2008), levando em consideração as operações de contabilidade criativa e os empréstimos do governo federal para bancos públicos, principalmente BNDES. Para isso, utilizam-se diversos conceitos de superávit primário (oficial; oficial excluindo as receitas de contabilidade criativa; e permanente) e de endividamento (dívidas líquida, bruta e bruta excluídas reservas internacionais), para o período de 2003 a 2014. Em todos os casos analisados, a hipótese de sustentabilidade não foi satisfeita, logo há a necessidade de se alterar a política fiscal do país. Foram realizados testes de quebra estrutural seguindo a metodologia de Bai e Perron (1998), nos quais se verificou que a alteração no padrão da política fiscal pós-crise de 2008 foi um dos principais responsáveis pelo resultado de não sustentabilidade. Verificou-se também que, para esse período pós-crise, o cumprimento da meta do superávit primário se deveu, em grande parte, às receitas de concessões, refinanciamentos (Refis) e dividendos, com destaque para BNDES e Caixa Econômica Federal.
Title in English
Sustainability of Brazil´s public debt: an analizys using various concepts of primary surplus and debt
Keywords in English
Fiscal policy
Primary surplus
Public debt sustainability
Abstract in English
This dissertation analyses the sustainability of Brazil's public debt using the methodology proposed by Bohn (1998, 2008), taking into consideration creative accounting and loans from the federal government to public banks, especially BNDES. To this end, various concepts of primary surplus (official; official excluding revenues from creative accounting; and structural) and debt (net debt; gross debt; and gross debt excluding international reserves) are used, from 2003 to 2014. For all the scenarios the hypothesis of fiscal sustainability was not satisfied, and therefore the government would have to change the fiscal policy in Brazil. Structural break tests were performed following the methodology of Bai and Perron (1998), in which was found that the change in fiscal policy post-crisis of 2008 was one of the major factors on the results of non-sustainability. It was found that, for this post-crisis period, the fulfillment of the primary surplus target was mostly due to concession revenues, refinancing (Refis) and dividends, highlighting BNDES and Caixa Econômica Federal.
 
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Publishing Date
2015-12-04
 
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