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Master's Dissertation
DOI
10.11606/D.12.2017.tde-26092017-095026
Document
Author
Full name
Robison Francisco Kudamatsu
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2017
Supervisor
Committee
Postali, Fernando Antonio Slaibe (President)
Rocha, Fabiana Fontes
Afonso, Luis Eduardo
Fernandes, José Lúcio Tozetti
Title in Portuguese
Rendas do petróleo e desenvolvimento local no Brasil: um estudo empírico com base no produto municipal
Keywords in Portuguese
Desenvolvimento econômico
Petróleo
Produto interno bruto
Royalties
Abstract in Portuguese
Esta dissertação tem como objetivo analisar o impacto das transferências de royalties de petróleo no crescimento do PIB dos municípios beneficiados no Brasil.Para tanto, é utilizado o método Duplamente Robusto em um painel de municípios observados entre 2004 e 2013.Essa metodologia consiste em duas etapas: primeiramente, estima-se a probabilidade condicional dos municípios receberem as rendas do petróleo, ou seja, o propensity score;em seguida, estima-se um modelo em painel de efeitos fixos ponderado pela estimativa anterior. A principal vantagem desse procedimento é a obtenção de estimadores consistentes quando ao menos uma dessas etapas é especificada corretamente.Os resultados obtidos vão na direção contrária à tese de Maldição dos Recursos Naturais proveniente de rendas de petróleo e derivados. No caso, as evidências apontam que os royalties não afetam a taxa de crescimento do produto per capita municipal, apesar de promoverem um aumento geral nas despesas orçamentárias locais
Title in English
Petroleum royalties and local development in Brazil: an empirical study based on municipal GDP
Keywords in English
Economic development
Gross domestic product
Petroleum
Royalties
Abstract in English
This Master Thesis in Economics aims to analyze the impact of oil revenue transfers on the economic growth of benefited municipalities in Brazil. For this purpose, the Doubly Robust isthe method applied to a panel of localities observed between 2004 and 2013. This methodology consists of two stages. Firstly, it estimates the conditional likelihood of receiving the oil royalties, i.e., the propensity score. Then it estimates a fixed effect model weighted by the previous estimative. The main advantage of this procedure is to obtain consistent estimators when at least one of the mentioned stages is correctly specified. The results refute the Natural Resources Curse hypothesis in the Brazilian oil revenues. More specifically, the evidence is that royalties do not affectthe municipal GDP per capita growth, despite providing a general increase in local expenses.
 
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OriginalRobison.pdf (1.23 Mbytes)
Publishing Date
2017-10-02
 
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