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Master's Dissertation
DOI
10.11606/D.12.2011.tde-27012012-190259
Document
Author
Full name
Eduardo Colagrossi Paes Barbosa
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2011
Supervisor
Committee
Haddad, Eduardo Amaral (President)
Azzoni, Carlos Roberto
Feres, José Gustavo
Title in Portuguese
Mudanças climáticas e o padrão do uso do solo no Brasil
Keywords in Portuguese
Agricultura - Brasil
Economia regional
Microeconomia
Mudança climática
Uso do solo - Brasil
Abstract in Portuguese
Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar os impactos de mudanças climáticas sobre o padrão do uso da terra no Brasil. Para tanto foi utilizado um modelo microfundamentado de alocação ótima do solo para diferentes usos, derivado a partir de um agente representativo com seis opções de uso do solo: soja, milho, cana-de-açúcar, outras lavouras, pastos e florestas. A partir da estimação dos coeficientes deste modelo foram realizadas simulações com previsões de temperatura e níveis de precipitação fornecidos pelo CNTP/INPE, para cenários de mudanças, climáticas elaborados pelo IPCC, nos períodos de 2010-39, 2040-69 e 2070-2099. Os resultados encontrados se mostraram heterogêneos no espaço, mas foi identificada uma tendência em todo país de aumento das áreas de pasto e diminuição das áreas de floresta.
Title in English
Climate change and the land use pattern in Brazil
Keywords in English
Agriculture
Climate change
Land use
Abstract in English
The objective of this dissertation is to assess the impacts of climate change on the land use pattern in Brazil. To do so an economic model for optimal land use allocation was used. This model was derived from the profit maximization problem of a representative agent that has six options of land use: soybean, corn, sugar cane, other crops, pasture land and forests. From the estimated coefficients of the model simulations were carried using forecast data for temperature and precipitation in three periods of times 2010-39, 2040-69 and 2070-99. The results varied greatly in different regions but in general the area for pasture land increased while the areas for forests declined.
 
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Publishing Date
2012-02-10
 
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