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Doctoral Thesis
DOI
10.11606/T.12.2013.tde-02072013-150620
Document
Author
Full name
Daniel Reed Bergmann
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2013
Supervisor
Committee
Savoia, Jose Roberto Ferreira (President)
Canton, Adolpho Walter Pimazoni
Nakamura, Wilson Toshiro
Rochman, Ricardo Ratner
Securato, Jose Roberto
Title in Portuguese
Estratégias de diversificação de carteiras de ações com dependência assimétrica
Keywords in Portuguese
Ações
Administração de carteiras
Finanças
Abstract in Portuguese
DeMiguel, Garlappi e Uppal (2009) fizeram a comparação da regra 1/N ou de Talmud com 14 modelos de otimização que vieram depois do trabalho de Markowitz (1952). As conclusões mostraram que todos os modelos de alocação ótima analisados tiveram um desempenho inferior ao da regra de Talmud. Tu e Zhou (2011) propuseram uma combinação entre Markowitz e Talmud para que tal modelo superasse Talmud. Os resultados obtidos foram satisfatórios. A desconsideração dos eventos extremos (dependência assimétrica ou caudal) durante o processo de construção de carteiras poderá diminuir as habilidades dos gestores de ativos em reduzir o risco através da diversificação. A modelagem de cópulas sobre os retornos dos ativos nos permite calcular uma alternativa para medir a dependência dos ativos em eventos extremos através do índice de dependência caudal inferior. Hatherley e Alcock (2007) relataram que o modelo de Markowitz tende a subestimar as perdas potenciais que venham a ocorrer na presença de eventos extremos de mercado (crashes) para um determinado nível de retorno esperado. Verificamos se as estratégias com dependência caudal superaram Talmud, o modelo de Markowitz e o modelo de Tu e Zhou (2011) através da simulação de 1.000 carteiras com 3, 5, 10 e 20 ativos escolhidos ao acaso do índice DJIA no período de 03/1990 até 12/2012. Concluímos que os modelos de dependência caudal e o de Markowitz tiveram uma desempenho fora da amostra superior ao Talmud e ao modelo de Tu e Zhou (2011) para as carteiras com 3, 5, 10 e 20 ativos. A estratégia com dependência caudal superou Markowitz, em termos de retorno acumulado, em mais de 60% dos meses considerados em todas as análises. Os resultados apontam que a regra de Talmud deve ser descartada num contexto de construção de carteiras com ações frente à estratégia com dependência caudal.
Title in English
Strategies to diversify portfolios with asymmetric dependence
Keywords in English
Asset diversification
Correlation coefficient and performance ex-ante
Tail dependence
Abstract in English
DeMiguel, Garlappi and Uppal (2009) made a comparison of rule 1 / N or Talmud with most optimization techniques that followed the work of Markowitz (1952). The conclusions were devastating for all asset allocation models in the context of portfolios combined with other portfolios. Tu and Zhou (2011) proposed a combination between Markowitz and Talmud to overcome such a rule Talmud. The results were satisfactory. In the presence of extreme events, the Pearson correlation coefficient tends to increase in magnitude, making spurious results diversification based solely on this factor. The elimination of extreme events (asymmetric or tail dependence) during the portfolio construction process can reduce the skills of asset managers to reduce risk through diversification. The copula theory allows us to calculate an alternative to measure the dependence of extreme events in assets through the index lower tail dependence. Hatherley and Alcock (2007) reported that the Markowitz model tends to underestimate the potential losses that may occur in the presence of extreme market events (crashes) for a given level of expected return. We check that the strategies with tail dependence overcame Talmud rule, the Markowitz model and the model of Tu and Zhou (2011) by simulating 1,000 portfolios with 3, 5, 10 and 20 randomly selected assets from DJIA for the period 03/1990 until 12/2012. We conclude that models of tail dependence and Markowitz had more performance ex-ante than Talmud and the Tu and Zhou (2011) model for portfolios with 3, 5, 10 and 20 assets. Tail dependence models overcome Markowitz, in terms of cumulative return, in over 60% of months considered in the analysis. The results indicate that the Talmud rule should be discarded in a context of constructing portfolios with individual stocks ahead strategies with tail dependence.
 
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Publishing Date
2013-07-17
 
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