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Master's Dissertation
DOI
10.11606/D.12.2012.tde-21012013-171433
Document
Author
Full name
Renan Grassi Franco de Menezes
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2012
Supervisor
Committee
Zylbersztajn, Decio (President)
Machado Filho, Cláudio Antonio Pinheiro
Rezende, Christiane Leles
Title in Portuguese
Percepção de risco e escolha dos contratos nas transações de venda do café
Keywords in Portuguese
Avaliação de risco
Cafeicultura
Economia institucional
Abstract in Portuguese
Existem evidências de que os produtores de café preferem transacionar via mercado spot ao invés de atuar em mercados de entrega futura ou realizar contratos de longo prazo com a indústria. Se o estabelecimento de contratos permite a redução do risco, quais fatores, associados a estas formas de transação, estariam influenciando a decisão dos cafeicultores? Este trabalho busca relacionar a determinação da forma de governança da transação de venda do café com a maneira como o cafeicultor percebe o risco. Sob a perspectiva da geração da renda, a preferência por relações spot, portanto, de curta duração é justificável? Como o tomador da decisão incorpora sua visão do risco para fazer sua escolha? Para esclarecer tais questões, primeiramente, são conduzidas entrevistas com produtores, visando identificar o perfil dos cafeicultores e entender como, mesmo que implicitamente, eles incorporam a gestão de rico em suas escolhas contratuais. Em seguida, este estudo elabora um modelo de simulação da renda dos produtores utilizando dois cenários, o ocorrido (cenário real) e um cenário com a adoção de contratos que limitem a margem de variação dos preços.
Title in English
Risk perception and contractual choice in coffee transactions
Keywords in English
Coffee production
Contract design
Governance forms
Risk factors
Abstract in English
There are evidences pointing that coffee producers rather prefer transact their product through spot market than by future contracts or by long-term contracts with the industry. If the establishment of those contracts allows risk reduction and mitigation, what factors associated with these transaction forms are influencing the producers' decisions? This study seeks to unite the governance form choice of the coffee selling transaction with the risk observance by the producers. Under the perspective of income generation, the preference for spot transactions is justified? How the decision maker aggregates his risk vision in order to make such choice? To answer those questions, first, an income simulation model is derived, using two scenarios, one using real spot price and another one with hypothetical contracts that diminishes the price fluctuation. Following that, interviews with a few producers take place, in order to understand how they, even if in implicit way, incorporate a risk managing notion to their activity.
 
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Publishing Date
2013-02-22
 
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