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Master's Dissertation
DOI
10.11606/D.18.2012.tde-15022012-172539
Document
Author
Full name
Karla Cristina Rodrigues Silva
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Carlos, 2012
Supervisor
Committee
Ferraz, Antonio Clóvis Pinto (President)
Bezerra, Bárbara Stolte
Françoso, Maria Teresa
Title in Portuguese
Aplicação do modelo de previsão de acidentes do HSM em rodovias de pista simples do Estado de São Paulo
Keywords in Portuguese
Acidentes
Calibração
Método de previsão
Rodovia de pista simples
Abstract in Portuguese
Nesta dissertação é feita uma avaliação dos resultados da aplicação do modelo de previsão de acidentes apresentado no Highway Safety Manual - HSM, publicado pela American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) no ano de 2010, para o caso de trechos de rodovia de pista simples localizados no interior do estado de São Paulo. São analisados o método original do HSM, o método do HSM calibrado para os trechos de rodovias estudados e o método empírico de Bayes. Os resultados apresentados pelo método original do HSM são bastante distintos dos valores reais observados, o que exclui a possibilidade do seu emprego direto no universo analisado. No entanto, os valores resultantes da aplicação do método do HSM calibrado e do método de Bayes, em todas as análises realizadas, aproximam-se de maneira satisfatória dos valores observados (com resultados melhores no método de Bayes) - o que mostra que esses métodos podem ser utilizados para a previsão de acidentes no universo analisado, bem como em outras situações com condições similares. Ainda que seja recomendada a realização de estudos específicos para a aplicação do modelo em outras regiões do país, na ausência desses estudos, os valores obtidos neste trabalho podem ser empregados como primeira aproximação.
Title in English
Application of the HSM crash prediction method for two lane highways of the state of Sao Paulo
Keywords in English
Accident
Calibration
Crash prediction
Two lane highways
Abstract in English
This research conducts an evaluation of the results achieved by means of the application of crash prediction method presented by the Highway Safety Manual - HSM, published by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) in 2010, for the case of two lane highway segments situated in the state of Sao Paulo. The analyses were aimed at the original method of the HSM, the method calibrated to the studied highways segments and with the use of the empirical Bayes method. The results obtained by application of the HSM original method are quite distinct from the actual crash values observed, which excludes the possibility of its direct employment in the universe analyzed. However, the values resulting from application of the calibrated HSM method and the method of Bayes, in all data analysis, approach satisfactorily the observed values (with better results with the use of Bayes method) - which shows that these methods can be used for the prediction of accidents in the universe analyzed, as well as in other situations with similar conditions. Although it is recommended to perform specific studies for the application of the method in other regions of the country, in the absence of these studies, the values provided by this research study can be used as a first approximation.
 
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Karla.pdf (2.10 Mbytes)
Publishing Date
2012-02-29
 
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