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Doctoral Thesis
DOI
https://doi.org/10.11606/T.5.2024.tde-07052024-114310
Document
Author
Full name
Adriano Nicola Rios
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2024
Supervisor
Committee
Amaku, Marcos (President)
Azevedo Neto, Raymundo Soares de
Gracias, Antonio Carlos
Rodrigues, Daniel
Title in Portuguese
Modelagem temporal e espacial da propagação da dengue no Brasil
Keywords in Portuguese
Aplicações da epidemiologia
Dengue
Modelos epidemiológicos
Transmissão de doença infecciosa
Abstract in Portuguese
A dengue é uma infecção viral causada por um arbovírus e propagada através de picadas de mosquitos do gênero Aedes que causa anualmente prejuízos significativos em termos humanos e econômicos. Medidas preventivas vem sendo tomadas para a diminuição da proliferação do mosquito transmissor e a vacinação da população está sendo iniciada. Paralelo a estas medidas, vários estudos apresentam uma modelagem para a propagação da doença com objetivo de determinar fatores relevantes no processo e assim orientar medidas preventivas e futuras iniciativas de vacinação. Dentro deste contexto, este trabalho traz uma modelagem para a propagação da doença através de um sistema de equações diferenciais onde a população da região geográfica estudada (cidades brasileiras) é subdividida com circulação de humanos entre elas, tornando assim o humano o propagador da doença. Foi possível, através do modelo apresentado, caracterizar a série temporal de infectados pela dengue na cidade de Goiânia-GO entre os anos de 2000 e 2003 usando duas e três subdivisõesda região geográfica estudada. Foram também descritos os ciclos sazonais da doença sem o esgotamento do número de humanos suscetíveis
Title in English
Temporal and spatial modelling of the spread of dengue fever in Brazil
Keywords in English
Dengue
Disease transmission infectious
Epidemiological models
Uses of epidemiology
Abstract in English
Dengue is a viral infection caused by an arbovirus and spread through the bites of mosquitoes of the genus Aedes that annually causes significant losses in human and economic terms. Preventive measures have been taken to reduce the proliferation of the transmitting mosquito and vaccination of the population is being initiated. Parallel to these measures, several studies present modeling for the spread of the disease with the aim of determining relevant factors in the process and thus guiding preventive measures and future vaccination initiatives. Within this context, this work provides modeling for the spread of the disease through a system of differential equations where the population of the studied geographic region (Brazilian cities) is subdivided with the circulation of humans between them, thus making the human the propagator of the disease. It was possible, through the presented model, to characterize the time series of people infected with dengue in the city of Goiânia-GO between the years 2000 and 2003 using two and three subdivisions of the studied geographic region. Seasonal cycles of the disease were also described without exhausting the number of susceptible humans
 
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Publishing Date
2024-05-28
 
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