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Master's Dissertation
DOI
https://doi.org/10.11606/D.8.2024.tde-23072024-125153
Document
Author
Full name
Gustavo Fernandes de Paula
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2024
Supervisor
Committee
Barberia, Lorena Guadalupe (President)
Marconi, Nelson
Santos, Fabio Pereira dos
Title in Portuguese
O espaço fiscal dos estados brasileiros durante a pandemia de COVID-19: efeitos do federalismo fiscal, do socorro da União e da política
Keywords in Portuguese
Espaço fiscal
Federalismo Fiscal
Política
Políticas Públicas
Socorro da União
Abstract in Portuguese
Este texto tem por objetivo mensurar e analisar o espaço fiscal dos estados brasileiros entre 2015 e 2022, durante a pandemia de COVID-19. A medida de espaço fiscal permite aferir a relação entre receitas e despesas obrigatórias e, consequentemente, a capacidade de gastos discricionários, sendo importante por seu direto impacto na capacidade de financiamento de políticas públicas por parte das unidades subnacionais, principais provedoras de serviços públicos no Brasil. Essa mensuração e análise se fazem ainda mais relevantes durante a crise provocada pelo vírus SARS-CoV-2 que produziu efeitos sanitários, sociais, econômicos e financeiros. Durante a pandemia, foi possível observar o crescimento generalizado do espaço fiscal nos estados brasileiros, mas atrelado positivamente a variação de capacidade arrecadatória própria. Assim, há evidências de que esse crescimento foi desigual entre os estados, afetado por desigualdades fiscais prévias. Entretanto, antes da pandemia, essas desigualdades fiscais não se manifestaram sobre a produção de espaço fiscal, o que pode apontar uma mudança estrutural dos efeitos do federalismo fiscal brasileiro sobre a produção de espaço fiscal das unidades subnacionais. Ao analisar as ações emergenciais da União, expressas por medidas legais, mas, principalmente, pelo socorro fiscal direcionado aos estados, constatou-se que essas medidas, ainda que tenham levado a ganhos de espaço fiscal à grande maioria dos estados, acabaram por beneficiar alguns estados em detrimento de outros. Assim, ao não considerar e não combater desigualdades fiscais existentes, pode ter acabado amplificando-as, explicando o maior aumento de espaço fiscal em estados com maior capacidade arrecadatória própria. Quanto aos efeitos da política, apenas o ano antes da eleição aumentou a produção de espaço fiscal dos estados brasileiros durante a pandemia de COVID-19, não sendo observados efeitos da possibilidade de reeleição, ideologia e governismo dos governadores
Title in English
The fiscal space of Brazilian states during the COVID-19 pandemic: effects of fiscal federalism, the Federal emergency relief package and politics
Keywords in English
Federal emergency relief package
Fiscal Federalism
Fiscal Space
Politics
Public Policy
Abstract in English
This text aims to measure the fiscal space of Brazilian states between 2015 and 2022, being able to analyze variations in their behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic. The fiscal space measure makes it possible to assess the relationship between revenues and mandatory expenses and, consequently, the capacity for discretionary spending, being important due to its impact on the financing capacity of public policies on the part of subnational units, the main providers of public services in Brazil. This measurement and analysis became even more relevant during the crisis caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which produced health, social, economic and financial effects. During the pandemic, it was possible to observe its widespread growth among Brazilian states but positively linked to the variation in its own collection capacity. Thus, there is evidence that this growth was uneven between states, affected by previous fiscal inequalities. However, before the pandemic, these fiscal inequalities did not manifest themselves in the production of fiscal space, which may point to a structural chage in the effects of Brazilian fiscal federalism on the production of fiscal space in subnation units. When analysing the emerging action of the Federal government, expressed by legal measures, but mainly by fiscal aid directed to the states, it was found these actions, although the led to gains in fiscal space for the vast majortity of states, ended up benefiting some states to the detriment of others. Thus, by not considering and combating existing fiscal inequalities, it may have ended up amplifying them, explaining the greater increase in fiscal space in states with greater tax collection capacity. As for effects of the policy, only the year before the election increased the production of fiscal space in Brazilian states during the COVID-19 pandemic, with no effects of the possibility of re-election, ideology and governorship of governos being observed
 
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Publishing Date
2024-07-23
 
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