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Doctoral Thesis
DOI
10.11606/T.8.2013.tde-30042013-123250
Document
Author
Full name
Gustavo Batista Araujo
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2012
Supervisor
Committee
Oliveira, Amâncio Jorge Silva Nunes de (President)
Barberia, Lorena Guadalupe
Ceneviva, Ricardo
Mancuso, Wagner Pralon
Pereira Neto, Manoel Galdino
Title in Portuguese
Contribuições de campanha influenciam decisões públicas? O caso dos contratos públicos federais e das emendas ao orçamento no Brasil
Keywords in Portuguese
Campanha eleitoral
Contratos públicos
Abstract in Portuguese
Contribuições de campanha afetam decisões públicas ou a atuação pós-eleitoral de atores políticos? Cientistas Políticos debruçam-se sobre esta questão há bastante tempo. No entanto, as respostas obtidas foram sempre ambíguas. Argumenta-se aqui que esta ambigüidade é em parte resultado de dificuldades metodológicas, muitas vezes malendereçadas, enfrentadas pelos analistas, como os problemas relativos a simultaneidade, a variáveis omitidas, geralmente não-observáveis, e ao estabelecimento do contrafatual adequado. Neste trabalho procuraremos contornar estes problemas através da utilização do método quase-experimental de regressão descontínua. Especificamente, iremos examinar a relação entre contribuições de campanha e a alocação de contratos públicos no Brasil. A pergunta a ser respondida é: existiu efeito de se exercer o mandato de deputado federal sobre os contratos públicos futuros recebidos por doadores dos candidatos na eleição de 2006? A conclusão a que se chegou foi de que a análise realizada nos permite afirmar que ter exercido ao menos um ano do mandato de deputado federal parece ter influenciado a quantidade de contratos públicos recebidos pelos doadores de candidatos eleitos por pequena margem na eleição de 2006, no Brasil, se consideramos apenas empresas que doaram para eleitos e apenas empresas que doaram para não-eleitos.
Title in English
Do campaign contributions affect public decisions? The case of federal public contracts and amendments to the budget in Brazil
Keywords in English
Election campaign
Public contracts
Abstract in English
Do campaign contributions affect public decisions or the post-election actions of political actors? Political Scientists have battled this issue for a long time. However, the responses achieved have always been somewhat ambiguous. In this work it is argued that this ambiguity is partly the result of methodological difficulties, poorly addressed at many occasions, faced by the analysts, such as the problems of simultaneity, omitted variables, generally unobservable, and the establishment of the appropriate counterfactual. In this work we will try to circumvent these problems by using the quasi-experimental method of regression discontinuity. Specifically, we will examine the relationship between campaign contributions and the allocation of public contracts in Brazil. The question to be answered is whether there was an effect of exercising the mandate of federal deputy on future contracts received by donors to federal deputy candidates in the 2006 election? The conclusion reached was that the analysis allows us to affirm that having exercised at least one year of office for a federal deputy seems to have influenced the amount of contracts received by the donors of candidates elected by small margins in the 2006 election, in Brazil, if we consider companies who donated only to elected candidates and only to non-elected candidates.
 
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Publishing Date
2013-04-30
 
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