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Master's Dissertation
DOI
10.11606/D.8.2011.tde-17092012-121840
Document
Author
Full name
Aleksei Zolnerkevic
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2011
Supervisor
Committee
Raffo, Jorge Gustavo da Graca (President)
Santos, Douglas
Valverde, Rodrigo Ramos Hospodar Felippe
Title in Portuguese
Geografia eleitoral: volatilidade e tendências nas eleições presidenciais de 1989 a 2006
Keywords in Portuguese
Eleições presidenciais
Geografia eleitoral
Municípios brasileiros
Volatilidade eleitoral
Abstract in Portuguese
Esta dissertação trata do estudo da volatilidade eleitoral nas eleições presidenciais brasileiras no período de 1989 a 2006 na escala dos municípios brasileiros. Foi calculada a volatilidade eleitoral em quatro períodos: 1989/1994, 1994/1998, 1998/2002 e 2002/2006. Os cálculos foram feitos por meio do índice de volatilidade entre blocos de partidos (Bartolini e Mair 1990). A geografia eleitoral da volatilidade eleitoral municipal desses períodos é apresentada através de tabelas e mapas. Os municípios brasileiros são Identificados e classificados em cinco grupos pelo número de vezes em que eles apresentaram taxas altas de volatilidade no período de 1989 a 2006. Por fim é analisada a possível correlação entre essa classificação e algumas variáveis socioeconômicas. Os resultados obtidos sugerem que altas taxas de volatilidade eleitoral durante as eleições presidenciais nos municípios brasileiros estiveram correlacionadas a índices baixos de condição de vida e educacionais.
Title in English
Electoral geography: volatility and trends in presidential elections from 1989 to 2006
Keywords in English
Brazilian municipalities
Electoral geography
Electoral volatility
Presidential elections
Abstract in English
This dissertation is on the electoral volatility in Brazilian presidential elections between 1989 and 2006 on Brazilian municipalities scale. The electoral volatility of four periods was calculated: 1989/1994, 1994/1998, 1998/2002, and 2002/2006. The calculations were made using the inter-bloc volatility index (Bartolini and Mair, 1990). The electoral geography of municipal electoral volatility is presented through maps and tables. The Brazilian municipalities were identified and classified into five groups according to the incidence of high volatility in the period 1989 to 2006. Finally, there is an analysis of the possible correlation between this classification and some socioeconomic variables. The results indicate that high rates of electoral volatility during presidential elections in Brazilian municipalities were correlated with low rates of education and life condition.
 
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Publishing Date
2012-09-17
 
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