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Master's Dissertation
DOI
10.11606/D.96.2011.tde-20122011-095151
Document
Author
Full name
Caio Marcos Mortatti
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
Ribeirão Preto, 2011
Supervisor
Committee
Diniz, Eliezer Martins (President)
Ferreira, Alex Luiz
Miranda, Silvia Helena Galvao de
Title in Portuguese
Fatores condicionantes do crescimento econômico no Brasil: um estudo empírico
Keywords in Portuguese
Brasil
Crescimento Econômico
VAR Estrutural
Abstract in Portuguese
O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar empiricamente os principais fatores condicionantes do crescimento econômico brasileiro, no período de 1970 a 2010, a partir de um modelo de autoregressão vetorial estrutural seguindo especificação neoclássica da teoria macroeconômica de crescimento. Para isso, o estudo inicia-se com o enfoque teórico dos modelos de crescimento econômico e prossegue com a análise empírica do caso brasileiro utilizando o ferramental de séries temporais. Os principais resultados empíricos obtidos sugerem que: (i) a formação bruta de capital fixo, o capital humano e o grau de abertura da economia são instrumentos importantes de formulação de políticas de crescimento econômico; (ii) há um efeito da curva J na dinâmica da taxa de câmbio; e (iii) há diferenças nas elasticidades de curto e longo prazo, promovendo diferentes abordagens para políticas de planejamento econômico entre as variáveis.
Title in English
Conditioning Factors of Economic Growth in Brazil: An Empirical Study
Keywords in English
Brazil
Economic Growth
Structural VAR
Abstract in English
This research aims to empirically analyze the main conditioning factors of the Brazilian economic growth for the period 1970-2010 using a structural vector autoregression model following a neoclassical specification for the macroeconomic theory of economic growth. In order to do it, the analysis starts with the theoretic approach of the economic growth models and part to the empirical approach to the Brazilian case, using time series analysis. The mean partial empirical results suggest that: (i) gross fixed capital formation, followed by human capital and trade openness are important instruments of economic growth policy; (ii) there is an J curve e_ect on the dynamics of the exchange rate; and (iii) there are di_erences in the short and long-run elasticities, promoting di_erent approaches to economic planning policies between the variables.
 
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Publishing Date
2012-01-09
 
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