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Master's Dissertation
DOI
10.11606/D.96.2007.tde-25072007-083907
Document
Author
Full name
Gedir Silva de Souza
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
Ribeirão Preto, 2007
Supervisor
Committee
Kannebley Júnior, Sérgio (President)
Bender, Siegfried
Gremaud, Amaury Patrick
Title in Portuguese
Política fiscal e crescimento econômico: evidências para o caso brasileiro
Keywords in Portuguese
Crescimento
Governo
Tributação
Abstract in Portuguese
A dissertação trata da relação entre a política fiscal e o crescimento econômico observados no Brasil para o período de 1980 a 2005. Mais especificamente, examina se as evidências para o caso brasileiro vão ao encontro das predições dos modelos de crescimento endógeno em que se admite que gasto público e tributação afetam as taxas de crescimento do produto no longo prazo. O trabalho se apóia no modelo teórico de crescimento para políticas públicas proposto em Barro (1990). Os resultados econométricos são obtidos por meio de modelos de estimação do tipo ADL - Modelo Auto-Regressivo de Distribuição de Defasagens. São testadas especificações para duas diferentes classificações das variáveis fiscais, quais sejam, a classificação funcional e a classificação por categorias econômicas. Em relação às variáveis de gasto e receitas públicas (classificados por função), verificou-se que os gastos públicos produtivos estiveram positivamente relacionados às taxas de crescimento do produto, e a tributação distorciva esteve negativamente relacionada às mesmas taxas. Quanto aos resultados para as mesmas variáveis orçamentárias (classificadas por categorias econômicas), observou-se que o investimento público e os gastos em consumo do governo estiveram negativamente relacionados às taxas de crescimento do produto, embora o resultado não seja robusto.
Title in English
Economic growth and fiscal policy: evidences of the brazilian case
Keywords in English
Government
Growth
Taxation
Abstract in English
The dissertation deals with the relation between the fiscal politics and the economic growth observed in Brazil in the period of 1980 to 2005. More specifically, it examines the evidences to the Brazilian case that goes to find the prediction of endogenous growth models in what is admitted that the public expenses and the structure of taxation can affect the rate of growing product in the long term. The work has the support of the theoretical model of growing for the public policies proposed by Barro (1990). The econometrics results are obtained by the estimation models the type of ADL - Autoregressive and Lag Distributed Model. The specification for the two different classification of variable fiscal were tested, which are; the functional classification and the classification by the economic category. In relation of the variable of the public expenses and revenue (classification by function) we verified that the productive public expenses were positively related to the rates of growing of product and the distortionary taxation was negatively related to the same rates. And by the results for the same variable budgetary (classificated by the economic category) we observed that the public investment and the expenses in the consumption of the government were negatively related to the growing rates of product, whereas the result is not robust.
 
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GedirSilvadeSouza.pdf (516.98 Kbytes)
Publishing Date
2007-08-02
 
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