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Master's Dissertation
DOI
10.11606/D.96.2013.tde-25092013-160818
Document
Author
Full name
Rodrigo Baggi Prieto Alvarez
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
Ribeirão Preto, 2013
Supervisor
Committee
Kannebley Júnior, Sérgio (President)
Menezes Filho, Naercio Aquino
Pazello, Elaine Toldo
Title in Portuguese
Instrumentos públicos de incentivo às exportações e desempenho de estreantes no mercado internacional
Keywords in Portuguese
Análise de duração
Desempenho exportador
Incentivo às exportações
Painel Dinâmico
Propensity Score Matching
Abstract in Portuguese
A compreensão da dinâmica de persistência e evasão da atividade exportadora é fundamental para o desenho de incentivos adequados às firmas estreantes no mercado internacional e encontra respaldo nos modelos da nova teoria do comércio internacional. O propósito deste trabalho é investigar os determinantes do desempenho de firmas industriais brasileiras estreantes no mercado internacional, em termos de probabilidade de sobrevivência e evolução do valor exportado, com especial atenção aos impactos dos instrumentos de apoio Drawback, BNDES Exim e Proex. Para tanto, serão analisadas empresas estreantes no comércio exterior entre os anos de 1998 e 2003, configurando um painel desbalanceado com 8,5 mil firmas. Por meio de análise econométrica para dados em painel e estimação de modelos de duração, verificou-se que a função de sobrevivência e crescimento do valor médio exportado no tempo difere claramente entre firmas que utilizam um dos benefícios e aquelas que não o fazem. Também se pode afirmar que custos irreversíveis de entrada no comércio internacional não sejam desprezíveis entre as firmas industriais analisadas, o que indica que os programas públicos de promoção de exportações devam se concentrar na (i) redução da taxa de abandono das recém-exportadoras e (ii) na minimização dos custos fixos associados aos investimentos para entrada no mercado exportador.
Title in English
Public export promotion and new exporters performance: evidence from Brazilian manufacturing firms
Keywords in English
Duration Analysis
Dynamic Panel Models
Export Performance
Export Promotion Programs
Propensity Score Matching
Abstract in English
Understanding the dynamics of persistence and evasion of export activity is essential for the design of export promotion for new exporters and international trade policies. Several results point to the importance of taking into account the specific sector of the industry in the implementation of public policies, which is supported by the new models of international trade theory. The purpose of this work is to investigate the determinants of the performance of Brazilian industrial new exporters, with particular attention to the impacts of Drawback, BNDES Exim and Proex. For this, we analyzed firms between the 1998 and 2003, constituting an unbalanced panel with 8500 firms. By panel data analysis and estimation of duration models, we found that the survival function and the growth of exports clearly differs among companies that use one of the programs and those that do not. One can also say that sunk costs are not negligible among the industrial firms analyzed, which indicates that public export promotion should focus on (i) reducing the dropout rate of new exporters and (ii) minimize the fixed sunk costs related with initial investments to begin the export activty.
 
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Publishing Date
2013-10-18
 
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