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Master's Dissertation
Full name
Natália Diniz
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Ribeirão Preto, 2011
Lima, Fabiano Guasti (President)
Dreifus, Henrique Von
Gurgel, Angelo Costa
Title in Portuguese
O impacto da janela de Hurst na previsão de séries temporais financeiras
Keywords in Portuguese
Expoente de Hurst
Redes Neurais Recorrentes
Séries Temporais Financeiras
Abstract in Portuguese
Sabe-se que, na literatura, existem muitos modelos para se fazer previsão para séries temporais financeiras. Sabe-se também que não há um modelo perfeito e que os mais utilizados atualmente são os modelos de redes neurais recorrentes e os da família GARCH. Referências internacionais apontam que existe uma técnica de medição de uma janela temporal para se identificar o tipo de comportamento existente em uma série temporal; tal técnica é conhecida como Expoente de Hurst. É uma medida que qualifica a série como persistente ou anti-persistente. Este trabalho analisou se o Expoente de Hurst, interfere na qualidade das previsões feitas com o modelo de redes neurais recorrentes com e sem o uso do filtro de ondaletas, utilizando os preços diários das principais commodities, ações negociadas no mercado e a taxa de câmbio. no período de janeiro de 1998 a dezembro de 2010. Com a pesquisa observa-se, na maioria dos casos, há uma possível melhora na qualidade das previsões para as séries antipersistentes.
Title in English
The impact of Hursts window on the preview of financial time series
Keywords in English
Financial Time Series
Hurst Exponent
Neural Networks
Abstract in English
It is known that there are a lot of models to forecast financial time series. It is known, also, that there is not a perfect model and the most used nowadays are the Recurrent Neural Network models and those from the GARCH family. International references point to a technique of measurement using windowing in order to identify the kind of behavior that is present in time series. This technique is known as Hurst Exponent. It is a measure that qualifies the time series as persistent or anti-persistent. This work analyzed if the Hurst Exponent interferes in the quality of the forecasts made with the Neural Network models with and without the wavelet filter, using the main commodities, stock prices, Ibovespa index and the Dollar/Real exchange rate in the period ranging from January 1998 to December 2010. The initial conclusions concerning the models worked out are positives.
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Publishing Date
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  • DINIZ, Natalia, LIMA, Fabiano Guasti, e SILVA FILHO, Antônio Carlos da. The impact of the Hurst window in the financial time series forecast: an analysis through the exchange rate. Review of Business Research, 2012, vol. 12, p. 27-33.
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