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Master's Dissertation
DOI
https://doi.org/10.11606/D.55.2024.tde-29072024-155156
Document
Author
Full name
Juliano Genari de Araújo
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Carlos, 2024
Supervisor
Committee
Silva, Tiago Pereira da (President)
Carvalho, Luiz Max Fagundes de
Coelho, Lara Esteves
Rodrigues, Francisco Aparecido
Title in English
Agent models for disease propagation
Keywords in English
Agent models
Disease simulation
Dynamic populations
Stochastic models
Abstract in English
As we experienced a major pandemic the necessity of smart interventions became very clear, but the decision for the best interventions to implement are usually based on educated guesses as each disease behaves differently and the macro behavior of the population can be very difficult to predict. Inappropriate interventions usually fail to consider heterogeneities in communities and can put the most susceptible part of the population at risk. To help in the evaluation of interventions, we developed highly modular and configurable software for stochastic agent model simulations: COMORBUSS, a software where the population is constructed in an organic way. Every person in the community is represented in the simulation and has an established routine, some actions are fixed (such as the time when that person goes and comes back from work), and some are randomly taken following probabilities to achieve a mean behavior. COMORBUSS can also be expanded in functionally with modules using some simple interface methods implemented in the main classes. With COMORBUSS and an airborne spread model for inside classrooms we tested different strategies for the return of schools after the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic for the city of Maragogi-AL, in those simulations we arrived at the conclusion that for the safe opening of schools during a pandemic appropriate NPIs and behavioral protocols must be adopted, the vaccination of school teacher and other school staff is of paramount importance, as those workers are not only more susceptible than students, but they are also the main vectors of transmission. Uncontrolled school opening can be very dangerous as infection rates inside schools can explode leading to a significant increase in cases in the community.
Title in Portuguese
Modelos de agentes para propagação de doenças
Keywords in Portuguese
Modelo de agentes
Modelos estocásticos
opulações dinâmicas
Simulação de doenças
Abstract in Portuguese
Não disponível
 
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Publishing Date
2024-07-29
 
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